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Feb 18, 14:43
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š¤ https://t.co/X8IV4b1fBD https://t.co/ujQYuE5ZZN
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Feb 17, 14:56
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Iām shocked, SHOCKED to see gold sell-off as Chinese New Year beginsā¦ https://t.co/6s0d9PqYQ4
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Feb 16, 23:40
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Early sign of AI disrupting white collar jobs? https://t.co/mihMULR8Bk
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Feb 16, 15:51
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One of a number of potentially important macro divergences that occurred in 2H25 is shown below.
For the prior 10+ years, foreign Central Banks sold USTs when the USD rose and bought USTs when the USD fell.
In 2H25, foreign CBās sold USTs despite the weaker USDš https://t.co/sz7KNig4e5
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Feb 14, 17:49
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āWhat is it for?ā This is not a tough one to figure out.
The Chinese know what the Anglo-Americans did to both:
a) China during its ācentury of humiliationā, and;
b) A rising Germany the last time the world found itself in its current āThucydidesā situation (1873-1914). https://t.co/SaszmkaNqK
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Feb 14, 15:27
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The era Rubio lionizes in his speech below occurred under a monetary system with a neutral reserve asset (gold.)
Little of what Rubio lays out will be able to be accomplished unless the US goes back to a monetary system with a neutral reserve asset.
The Trump Admin knows this. https://t.co/9QnFtdltjR https://t.co/3IwYGyYRDn
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Feb 12, 21:30
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2/ To read more about this dynamic, check our @JeffBoothās must-read book, āThe Price of Tomorrow.ā https://t.co/qKPeVapvW0
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Feb 12, 21:28
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The pace of AI and robotics productivity improvement are fundamentally incompatible with our debt-based monetary system.
This is just the latest symptomš; it likely wonāt be the last. https://t.co/P0ANoacwK3
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Feb 12, 16:04
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2/ https://t.co/ddDnt1Wh2I
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Feb 12, 16:03
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*RUSSIA MEMO SEES RETURN TO DOLLAR SYSTEM IN PITCH TO TRUMP
Which dollar system - the pre-Trump dollar system or the post-Trump dollar system that USTR Jamieson Greer laid out at Davos three weeks ago?
Because thereās a āyugeā difference between the two.
Read Greerās speechš
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Feb 11, 17:59
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Feels like they missed an opportunity to use the word āyugeā here https://t.co/pYarqW9EUR
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Feb 11, 00:45
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https://t.co/XlWAZEteYZ
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Feb 11, 00:45
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Thanks for another fun and engaging conversation on @thoughtfulmoney , @adamtaggart - enjoyed it as always!
Full link in post below https://t.co/HDxdGpcDOe
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Feb 10, 14:02
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ā¦and just like that, ~300 years of Mahan Doctrine (ācontrol naval chokepoints and you control the worldā) gets turned on its head (naval chokepoints become kill zones for naval assets).
Investor consensus has only just begun discounting the macro implications. https://t.co/xmAwNnM0S6
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Feb 09, 22:34
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The US canā¦
a) Have a much weaker USD and make its own military & critical minerals, or;
b) Have a strong USD and have China make most of our military & critical minerals for us.
Thank you for listening to my TED talk. https://t.co/VHLWJlDBUm
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Feb 09, 21:28
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2/ Hereās a link to my YouTube channel; you can subscribe here to see this and future bi-weekly 5-10 minute update videos:
https://t.co/6TMV9DhTwE
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Feb 09, 21:27
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1/ Iām recording a 5-10 min YouTube video to be released later this week; pls drop some questions below & Iāll touch on as many as I can on a best efforts basis. Thx! (Also, pls feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel.)
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Feb 09, 21:25
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Anything @Myrmikan writes is must-read for me: https://t.co/wiRBSJ7wue
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Feb 09, 16:03
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Gold priced in CNY.
āThe CNY is our currency, AND itās our problem. If you donāt trust CNY, please convert any excess CNY received from commodity exports into gold, which will rise at a 45-degree angle over time in CNY terms, allowing your FX reserves to buy more Chinese goods." https://t.co/yOOphtp8r7
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Feb 08, 22:37
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āOur base case is that Warsh will be as dovish as Trump needs.ā -FFTT, last week
Math > Narratives (again) https://t.co/aHMDlz2jzM
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Feb 08, 16:33
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Sentiment check: Gold has outperformed SPX Total Return over 1-year, 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, and 25-year time horizons, & yet US investor consensus still holds basically no physical gold š¤ https://t.co/r4ejJDkWXV https://t.co/93guaI0f6L
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Feb 07, 16:03
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China SHFE gold vault tonnage began rising sharply higher right around the same time that non-monetary gold became the USA's single biggest export for 1st time in 20+ years
US exported much of that gold to Switzerland; biggest Swiss gold export destination in that time? Chinaš¤ https://t.co/PwaP6iE4wp
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Feb 06, 14:08
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FT Editorial Board sees gold as just another area of excess in the financial system, rather than a completely rational response to the many obvious, looming signs of the choice of "save the bond market or the currency" facing western policymakers.
Sign of policymaker discomfort. https://t.co/FrQbVAdJCs
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Feb 06, 13:52
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https://t.co/0K6E4P4fIe
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Feb 06, 13:51
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Thanks for having me on "Talking Markets", @maggielake ! I enjoyed our conversation.
Link below. https://t.co/uYa5qsBViE
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Feb 05, 21:26
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Anthropic just told us that white collar unemployment may soon be driven to levels that make the whole system go *boom*.
6-7% unemployment ought to be more than enough to light the fuse. https://t.co/ZDAKT1pxVn
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Feb 05, 19:10
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"Anthropic is releasing a new version of its most powerful AI model thatās designed to carry out financial research" - Bloomberg, 2/5/26
US white collar workers today increasingly looking like Cleveland, Ohio in 1959: "So proud and optimistic about the future..."š https://t.co/W7qoq2FIuq
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Feb 05, 15:28
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Perhaps most important chart in macro right now
10y UST yld - 10y JGB yld (blue) v. USDJPY
Markets appear to be discounting that the rate that forces BOJ back into YCC to avoid a Japan (& then global) debt crisis may not be too far north of here
BTC crash & gold vol = symptoms https://t.co/1hHyKWVJrD
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Feb 04, 20:52
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US manufacturing employment fell 35% in the 10 years after "AI productivity miracle 1.0" hit (China in WTO); consensus hubristically thinks "it's different this time."
If it performs as advertised (or feared), AI is fundamentally incompatible with our debt-based monetary system. https://t.co/fUawg0uZH3
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Feb 04, 20:06
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Thanks for having me on @badcharts1 @NorthstarCharts for a fun conversation about the interplay of fundamentals and technicals, and especially about the Capital Rotation Event and gold v. oil charts you guys have discussed. https://t.co/9dlCb3OdU2
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Feb 03, 19:01
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Price-insensitive buyers of USTs in blue (global FX reserves, ex-gold) v. US Federal debt (orange).
Since 2022, biggest marginal buyer of "the gap" has been highly-levered hedge funds in the Caymans... which is fine, as long as volatility NEVER rises ANYWHERE, in ANYTHING. https://t.co/eLeFoti4rq
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Feb 03, 16:46
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IMO, not nearly enough analysis has been done on this statement, why Bessent made it, and how it is true. https://t.co/VP4kaLVFnN
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Feb 02, 23:18
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Translation: Trumpās buying silver, etc. from all yāall, with printed dollars
š https://t.co/vYHoJyPIlI
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Feb 02, 21:25
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"What the world sees as 'an irrational Trump and US government' might be better interpreted as 'US critical mineral supply chains are in far worse shape than western consensus realizes..." -FFTT, 1/26/26
Capital goes where it's treated best; AI will go where it has electricity. https://t.co/OK7mDcLSkT
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Feb 02, 19:52
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When western consensus realizes that much of why China is producing so much, so cheaply is NOT because of a weak CNY or cheap labor, but because of integrated AI & robotics...
...western consensus on China & prospective western job losses to AI & robotics will need updating. https://t.co/n72flA7qPq
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Feb 02, 18:33
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It doesn't sound like the drop in gold prices is having the intended effect on Asian gold buyers š https://t.co/uNEeN9ScVR https://t.co/VXni9g98lV
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Feb 02, 14:53
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"What the world sees as 'an irrational Trump and US government' might be better interpreted as 'US critical mineral supply chains are in far worse shape than western consensus realizes..." -FFTT, 1/26/26 https://t.co/b3eE3JhLaJ
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Feb 02, 00:29
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Japan has already been trading like an EM for months (JGB yields up but JPY down) and you want to sell gold because the new Fed chairman was hawkish in 2011? https://t.co/Qu8fxPeaWq
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Feb 01, 18:13
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A trade debtor that exports gold at a floating price is settling part of its trade deficit in gold at a floating price, de facto.
Would result in much higher gold, lower USD, contained 10y UST yields, & in time, reshored US industry & middle class.
Win/win/win. Let's watch. https://t.co/l3cCjgDfFx
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Jan 30, 20:51
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Eagles & Buffalos too
2/2 https://t.co/myey12IjDs
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Jan 30, 20:51
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Interestingš¤
1/2 https://t.co/kWrDiPV32F
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Jan 30, 18:08
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That 10y UST yields are up on the day given what all other assets are doing is IMO a "yuge" tell about what will happen if Warsh is actually hawkish. https://t.co/OaR7zxxpZu
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Jan 30, 15:28
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https://t.co/kUlOpDwmUv
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Jan 30, 15:27
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āIām really excited about the partnership between him and Bessent,ā Druckenmiller said. āHaving an accord between the Treasury secretary and Fed chair is ideal.ā
Source: FT article, released 55 minutes ago. Link below
š¤
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Jan 30, 15:21
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https://t.co/iB1G1LjU6C
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Jan 29, 21:33
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Well, gold = CNY 37,500 today, so if US Treasury would run gold up to $10,000, that would be 37,500/$10,000 = 3.75 on USDCNY...
Gold is the pivot, or, if you prefer the parlance of former Treasury official & World Bank President Robert Zoellick, gold is the "reference point." https://t.co/6KbLFxqbG0
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Jan 29, 17:40
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Last 4 years, the US has told the world by word and deed (seizing Russian FX reserves, seizing Maduro, telling EU "if you don't control it, you don't own it")...
...so don't be surprised when gold gets put on sale, the world buys what can't be seized
Realpolitik > "Mr. Slammy" https://t.co/rw1OQVj2oU
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Jan 29, 16:05
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10% intraday move in gold you say, @jameslavish?š https://t.co/i7efTe0f2R https://t.co/lTyEkXgMuj
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Jan 29, 15:17
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It's never different this time...just make sure your history books date back far enough.
For example, here's "The Raven of Zurich", circa 2010.
This sounds eerily familiar: https://t.co/3tdjA1YKCg
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Jan 28, 22:33
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Major global energy and commodity exporter planning to issue bonds in USD, EUR, and CNY in 2026.
Let's watch. https://t.co/jIcLKaefXB
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Jan 28, 20:08
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2/ Hereās a link to my YouTube channel; you can subscribe here to see this and future bi-weekly 5-10 minute update videos: https://t.co/6TMV9DhlH6
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Jan 28, 19:11
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Anas points out another "dog that didn't bark":
The mainstream western narrative told us US airstrikes had crippled Iran's ability to make nuclear weapons for many years to come; what changed?
Was the mainstream narrative wrong, were we lied to, or is something else going on? https://t.co/7dzJx7TASU
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Jan 28, 18:00
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*BRAZIL WILL MAKE ISSUANCE IN YUAN IN 2026: MINISTRY
- Bloomberg, 1/28/26, via FF
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Jan 27, 22:48
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The US can haveā¦
1) a strong USD (which means we run out of air defense missiles in <1 month of medium intensity combat defending Israel, & then have to ask China nicely for critical minerals to make more), orā¦
2) a weak USD
āWhatā¦doā¦youā¦WANT?ā We have chosen wisely IMO https://t.co/aDj6pHP3Qx
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Jan 27, 18:51
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Trillions are resting on "Assume a can opener" economic & supply chain analysis vis a vis AI.
"Can opener" = sufficient supplies of actual physical metals.
IMO, part of gold's spike higher is gold calling the bluff of those "assuming a can opener."
Let's watch. https://t.co/FxfOnruiqk
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Jan 27, 17:26
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"What the world sees as 'an irrational Trump and US government' might be better interpreted as 'US critical mineral supply chains are in far worse shape than western consensus realizes..."
Thanks for having me on, @paulbuitink - I enjoyed our conversation! https://t.co/3kUeJj2c0G
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Jan 27, 16:25
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Another non-sequitur https://t.co/X7Rwz5gPBq
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Jan 27, 15:42
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Lots of non-sequiturs this morning it seems. https://t.co/M6DD9xTzNk
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Jan 27, 15:10
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Non-sequitur https://t.co/jVrWnDpPPz
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Jan 26, 18:29
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Western consensus is there is no other market big enough to absorb global trade imbalances other than the US.
That same western consensus has not yet noticed gold absorbed $15tn in flows in just the past 12 months alone without a hiccup (and can absorb infinitely more.) https://t.co/IJJVflTWTY
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Jan 26, 14:32
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After this rally in gold, the market value of US official gold as a % of foreign-held USTs is up to 14%.
Assuming no further rise in foreign held USTs, gold would have to rise:
50% to get to 1989 levels
3x to get to LT average levels
9x to hit 1980 levels https://t.co/yECMgb8twa
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Jan 25, 19:28
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Not all GDP is created equal:
Remove Russian energy & commodities from global supplies & the resultant inflation would collapse western bond markets & economies in < 1 month.
Russia would eventually then collapse too, it would just take a few months or quarters longer. https://t.co/hMfS15wODi
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Jan 25, 18:26
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De-industrialization, fiscal dominance, Central Bankers printing money to try to keep inflation-adjusting off-balance sheet obligations nominally money good, financial nihilism amongst the youth, rising political instability/violence in the streets, rapidly rising gold prices š https://t.co/rcq53YrOQ2
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Jan 24, 15:37
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https://t.co/HQqGVEl365
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Jan 23, 16:13
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"Invert, always invert." - Charlie Munger
"What is the dog that doesn't bark?" - FFTT
For example: If the US government did not want gold to move higher, why would the US DOJ charge JPM's metals desk criminally under RICO statutes in Sept-2019 for manipulating gold? š¤ https://t.co/ORjUYkGMGC
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Jan 23, 14:10
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Source: https://t.co/J4aowAohns
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Jan 23, 14:10
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"Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics."
-USMC Gen. Robert Barrow.
Tactics = "We're going to leverage a US defense umbrella to create coalition of allies and box out China."
Logistics = š https://t.co/ApfxPuZ5S0
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Jan 22, 19:11
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IMO the real gold action started when CNY oil contract started in March 2018, because "The Law of One Price" tells us you cannot have 2 different Gold/Oil Ratios in 2 different currencies (USD GoR v. CNY GoR).
This is what those saying "CNY oil was a nothingburger" missed. https://t.co/n1jtOQ4tyU
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Jan 22, 18:04
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A macro question that is not being asked yet:
"How much were gold prices capped historically by the expansion of credit (unallocated paper) gold?"
Many opining on the gold/oil ratio (GoR), but few seem to be asking if GoR would've been far higher had credit gold not capped GoR. https://t.co/yGciXfaChB
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Jan 22, 01:30
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Why you shouldn't move to Cleveland (unless...) and lots of other topics with a fellow Strongsville High School Mustang...
Thanks for another fun conversation, @CoffeeandaMike! https://t.co/SzkMNCuEIA
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Jan 21, 22:54
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"Invert, always invert." -Charlie Munger
"What is the dog that doesn't bark?" - FFTT
For example: Why are the Ukrainians buying drones from China instead of the US or Europe? https://t.co/4ej5VTTcrW
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Jan 21, 21:48
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"When is the Mar-A-Lago Accord to weaken the USD going to happen?"
(Inverted chart of gold since 2nd Trump inaugurationš) https://t.co/FJSwC0Y3NO
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Jan 21, 16:29
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China deindustrializes the west by manufacturing for no profits.
The US has grown Federal debt by 8% CAGR since 2008 while USTs have rarely yielded much above 4%.
Making no money in manufacturing > Losing 4-8% CAGR in USTs on a real basis, b/c at least you end up with factories https://t.co/4tZbH5xgI9
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Jan 21, 14:31
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Thanks for having me on to talk about "The Debasement Trade", @forexstophunter ...and for leading off with a great dad joke my friend! https://t.co/7mPvcsniQL
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Jan 20, 20:56
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October 7, 2025 edition of FFTT full report: "This is not a gold 'rally', it's a gold 'phase change.'"
Gold price: $3,971.
"Gold will be repriced once in life, and that will be much more than enough." -ANOTHER, 1997 https://t.co/WjGMWhhD4h
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 20, 17:05
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Thanks for having me on again for a great discussion, @natbrunell! https://t.co/ajHCKzXz89
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 20, 15:51
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China weaponized rare earths v. Japan in 2010; 16 years later, China reportedly still supplies ~60% of Japan's rare earths. Will the US do in < 2 years what Japan couldn't in 16 yrs?
It just took Elon 3 years to build one lithium plant in Texas.
Take the "over" on time & cost. https://t.co/EYFeu8OjVw
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 20, 14:01
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If I was China & wanted to retaliate for US actions in recent weeks, I'd...
a) Strengthen CNY <check>
b) Put "dual use" export ban on Chinese goods to Japan <check>
China =Japan's largest import partner; driving up Japan import inflation will hurt JGB's...then USTs, gilts, etc https://t.co/LyR3MbBiR1
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 19, 22:39
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Most western economists and policymakers have not grasped yet that the westās āgood demographicsā will drive domestic political instability across the west if @johnarnoldās answer below about Chinese robotics is even directionally accurate. https://t.co/NcDUqvy6OL
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 19, 19:36
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Source: https://t.co/M4yc6FMQKu
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 19, 19:36
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"Warsh is the hawkish choice for Fed Chair"
But in 2018, he co-wrote this WSJ op-ed begging the Fed for more liquidity (despite "strong economic growth for 2018"), b/c "Bank stocks are down about 15% since Oct. 1. Other economically sensitive sectors...are down by double https://t.co/sKz8CHNhBX
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 18, 22:22
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Who had āTrump agreeing with Obamaās Assistant Secretary of State on EU policyā on their 2026 bingo card?
š³ https://t.co/rLlmqXvGVj
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 18, 17:48
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Bessent: "We are not going to outsource our national security."
Mr. Secretary, we outsourced our national security to China decades ago š, & unless you're willing to end post-1971 structure of USD reserve status (shifting to neutral reserve asset), this fact will not change. https://t.co/4qQeWRnSzt https://t.co/6eCiLtlzXO
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 18, 15:29
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https://t.co/xv7DIr7rlb
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 17, 14:35
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10y UST yields rising 7bp Friday on "hawkish Warsh" headlines is a critical signpost IMO.
10y yields up when Fed is both "dovish" AND "hawkish" is a sign the debt needs to be devalued.
Gold seems to have begun discounting that eventuality (& is a potential means of doing so.) https://t.co/9p64R9Pkto
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 16, 18:47
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https://t.co/GTN9rACJ7i
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 16, 16:12
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"Hamm to Halt Drilling in Bakken Shale on Lower Crude Prices" - BBG, 1/16/26 https://t.co/WDpzRgy1qu
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 15, 17:40
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2/ Source: https://t.co/14fd0rXLjK
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 15, 17:35
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Recall that "US used about a quarter of its high end missile interceptors in Israel-Iran war" (per CNN), which was 11 days of medium-intensity combat.
"USD Dutch Disease" = the US can keep post-1971 structure of USD reserve status, or it can make its own military, but not both. https://t.co/WgZw4b8xFj
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 15, 16:19
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Post-1971 USD reserve status structure means that the US borrows money from China, to build weapons to face down China, using Chinese componentsš
"What...do...you...WANT?!" Keep post-1971 USD reserve status structure or not have China make ALL our weapons for us eventually? https://t.co/teFJiTfwzJ
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Jan 14, 14:43
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Thanks for another great discussion @IIICapital - I appreciate you! https://t.co/FiZ4YZ0yVl
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 13, 16:34
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In response to this, the US govt just removed silver from its "Critical Minerals" list (which it put silver on in November), as paper silver will now suffice.
Also, I will be replacing the silver in the 43 solar panels I have on my roof with 100-oz. CME silver contracts.
J/kš¤£ https://t.co/HOqlLX5F81
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 13, 15:10
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I have not seen Washington and global policymakers unified behind a US policymaker like this since Anthony Fauci. https://t.co/zvsP2b1mMI
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 13, 14:07
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That both gold & silver are up today despite this margin hike is potentially a VERY important signpost IMO.
It's something you'd expect to see if the west was increasingly ceding control of gold & silver pricing to Asia (i.e., paper ceding control to physical.) https://t.co/WJAARcJECk
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 12, 15:13
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Reminds me of when Bush said in Dec-08 "I had to abandon free market principles to save the free market system" & the US Army officer in Vietnam saying "We had to destroy the village in order to save it."
Both of those paradoxical statements represented the crossing of a Rubicon https://t.co/ZJOQz2LmqR
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 12, 14:09
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November 2020
Magazine cover indicator worked again.
Not many noticed at the time. https://t.co/tYAUKT6xCa
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 12, 01:03
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With US debt/GDP >120% & US True Interest Expense >100% of receipts, āFed independence to set ratesā means the Fed de facto sets US domestic economic policy & US foreign policy because Fed rate hikes raise interest expense, crowding out Entitlements, Defense, & Foreign Aid. https://t.co/qZPmVdPbve
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Batch analyzed (4 ideas in batch of 50)...
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